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OTTAWA — A new poll indicates Finance Minister John
Manley and Industry Minister Allan Rock, two potential challengers for the
Liberal leadership, become less popular the more Canadians get to know
them.
Canadians also have a marginally more negative view of former
finance minister Paul Martin, the prohibitive favourite to win the race,
the more they get to know him, according to an EKOS poll which measures
the "likeability" of the three men.
Among Liberals, however, Rock can take some solace, pollster Frank
Graves says, because party members cast him in a more favourable light
than do Canadians as a whole.
It could be an early sign that Rock's attempts to stake a
left-of-centre position in a leadership race could gain an audience
leading to the November, 2003, leadership vote to replace Prime Minister
Jean Chrétien.
"This is the first sign we've had that there would even be a reason
to have a race," Graves said in an interview yesterday.
The poll, considered accurate plus or minus 2.5 percentage points
19 times out of 20, did not measure attitudes about two other possible
contenders, Heritage Minister Sheila Copps and Toronto-Danforth MP Dennis
Mills.
EKOS asked 1,000 Canadians last week to choose one of several
options for Martin, Manley and Rock by completing the following sentence:
"The more I learn about ..."
They were asked whether they liked the candidates more, less, or
had the same view, the more they got to know the man, his style and
policies.
Over-all, 11 per cent of Canadians said they liked Martin less the
more they got to know him, 10 per cent liked him more, 53 per cent said
they felt the same and 26 per cent did not know or had no response.
For Manley, who drew fire for his anti-monarchist views last month
and is now being seen as a champion of bank mergers, 16 per cent held a
more negative view the more they got to know him and 4 per cent said they
liked him more. Some 44 per cent said they felt the same and 36 per cent
did not know or did not respond.
Rock's numbers were similar: 16 per cent of Canadians liked him
less the more they got to know him, and only 2 per cent viewed him more
positively. Some 40 per cent felt the same and 42 per cent did not know or
did not respond.
The gap for Rock narrows, however, when only Liberal supporters are
asked their views. Then, only 10 per cent view him more negatively, while
4 per cent had a more positive view.
EKOS gave a score to the candidates by subtracting their positive
views from their negative. Among Liberals, Martin scored minus one, Rock
minus six and Manley minus 10.
Martin has been campaigning since leaving the cabinet in June and
is so far expected to easily capture the leadership.
Rock is expected to begin a formal run in the new year, while
Manley said yesterday he expects to run "but it's still a long way off."
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